Forecasting of ragi production using auto regressive integrated moving average (arima) model in andhra pradesh

Sai Swathi Kotra, Suresh Cherukumalli and Nafeez Umar Shaik

This paper attempts to predict the future production of Ragi (Kg. /Hectare), cultivated and consumed in Andhra Pradesh. Considering the data of Ragi production during the tenure of 1966-2012, ARIMA method, a kind of basic time series analysis is employed here to forecast the production of Ragi upto the year 2017 by utilizing the most popular computer statistical package namely, SPSS. The best predicted model has been selected based on the maximumR^2, minimum Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Maximum Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It has been found that ARIMA (2 1 2) model is fit to describe the Ragi production data of Andhra Pradesh used here.

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