Projection of elderly in india during the census years 2021 to 2051

Tej Bale Singh., Pawan Kumar and Navin Kumar

Introduction: The expectation of life at birth is increasing due to better availability and utilization of health care facilities at national level, but the aged population ratio and other health and demographic indicators are lacking behind in comparison of developed countries. The aged dependency ratio at national level in 2011 census was 14.2. The percentage of elderly population in total were 8.2, 9.0 and 8.6 for male, female and total respectively as per 2011 census, where as these percentage were 5.5, 5.8, and 5.6 in the census year 1961.This shows that economic burden is increasing on the care of the elderly .
Objectives: The aim of this study is project percentage of the elderly population for next four census years.
Methodology: This study is based on secondary data obtained from Population census data 2011. Cubic regression model is used to forecast.
Finding: The best fitted model is cubic equation for male, female, rural, urban, and total subgroups separately with percentage variation explained as 99.4, 99.2, 99.6, 99.8, and 99.7 respectively.
Conclusion: It is concluded that the quantum of aged population is growing thus for care of these proportion economic burden increases on the family/society /nation. The government should make the plan for elderly regarding shelter, livelihood, better QOL etc in advance.

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